Just a few days ago, it seemed the 2026 Oscar race was all but decided. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another had swept the major precursors, winning top honors at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and, this past Saturday, the Producers’ Guild of America Awards—a key Oscar bellwether. It only needed the SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast to confirm its dominance.

But the SAG ceremony delivered the kind of last-minute twist that makes awards season thrilling: Ryan Coogler’s Sinners took that prize instead. With final Oscar voting underway and ballots due by Thursday, this gives the rollicking vampire saga a huge boost. The room’s enthusiasm was palpable—Viola Davis cheered wildly before presenting Michael B. Jordan with Best Actor; Samuel L. Jackson let out a resounding laugh before awarding Sinners the ensemble prize; both wins drew buoyant standing ovations; and Delroy Lindo’s teary, stunned final speech will surely linger with undecided voters.

A Best Picture Oscar win is far from guaranteed. Over the past decade, the PGA winner has taken Best Picture seven out of ten times, making it the more reliable predictor. (The SAG ensemble winner has aligned with Best Picture five times in the last ten years.) But when Best Picture doesn’t go to the PGA winner (like 1917 in 2020 or The Big Short in 2016), it often goes to the SAG ensemble winner (Parasite, Spotlight). As a result, on Oscar night in 13 days, Sinners and One Battle could be neck-and-neck for the top prize.

And that’s not the only race keeping us on edge. Best Actor also looks wide open. After winning the Critics’ Choice Award, Golden Globe, and nearly every critics’ prize, it seemed inconceivable that anyone but Marty Supreme’s Timothée Chalamet would take the Oscar. Yes, the BAFTAs threw a curveball by awarding I Swear’s Robert Aramayo—but wasn’t that just a classic left-field move from a body that loves honoring homegrown talent? Perhaps not. It may have been a sign that Chalamet isn’t the runaway frontrunner we assumed. At the SAG Awards, it was Michael B. Jordan who triumphed.

His reception was immense, and his speech characteristically charming—a welcome reminder of the 39-year-old’s unparalleled charisma and his versatile career, spanning action epics, franchise hits, serious dramas, and beloved indies. He could easily ride this momentum to a Best Actor Oscar. (Let’s not forget: Sinners has a record 16 nominations, a clear sign the Academy loves it.)

And if he doesn’t? Someone other than Chalamet could still sneak in. Since One Battle’s Leonardo DiCaprio and Blue Moon’s Ethan Hawke fell short here, it may not be them. But The Secret Agent’s Wagner Moura, who wasn’t up for a SAG Award (non-English performances are eligible but weren’t recognized this year), is the dark horse. The Academy has a sizable contingent of international voters; Moura beat Jordan for the Golden Globe earlier this year, and The Secret Agent is clearly well-liked, with four Oscar nods including Best Picture. If American voters split between Chalamet and Jordan, we might see Moura stealthily slide into first place. Whatever happens, I’ll be watching through my fingers when that envelope is opened.

Remarkably, the same goes for both supporting acting races. At one point, after his Golden Globe win, it looked like Sentimental Value’s Stellan Skarsgård had Best Supporting Actor locked up.However, Jacob Elordi had already won that prize at the Critics’ Choice Awards for Frankenstein, Benicio del Toro from One Battle had claimed a series of critics’ prizes, and his co-star Sean Penn took the BAFTA—and now the SAG Award as well. At both ceremonies, Penn was absent, making his wins feel slightly awkward in the room. In theory, this should hurt his Oscar chances—it’s clear the two-time Oscar winner isn’t actively campaigning for a third. But voters sometimes simply choose their favorite performances, regardless of the campaign behind them. (Consider Anthony Hopkins’s surprising win over the presumed favorite Chadwick Boseman in 2021, for example.) So a Penn Oscar victory isn’t entirely out of the question.

If not him, it could be anyone. Some speculate that Alexander Skarsgård’s recent snubs at the BAFTAs and SAG Awards might actually help him, given how close they were to the start of Oscar voting. Skarsgård has campaigned diligently, shown up everywhere, delivers an exquisite performance, and has had a formidable career spanning over five decades—surely Oscar-worthy credentials.

Then again, Benicio del Toro remains beloved and is still in contention despite already being an Oscar winner. Elordi delivers exactly the kind of transformative performance that often wins acting Oscars. And what about Delroy Lindo from Sinners? Overlooked by SAG, BAFTA, the Golden Globes, and the Critics’ Choice Awards, Lindo’s late-breaking surge has been galvanizing. Here’s an actor with an incredible career who has been consistently overlooked. Wouldn’t a Best Supporting Actor Oscar for him be the most cinematic outcome of all?

Which brings us to Best Supporting Actress. At the SAG Awards, it was Amy Madigan from Weapons who came from behind to take the prize. The 75-year-old veteran looked genuinely stunned, did a delightful Weapons-style jog to the podium, laughed with the audience, and reminded everyone this was her first SAG nomination. Her assured and funny speech is one I could easily imagine being repeated at the Oscars, and it’s worth remembering that the “it’s time” narrative is powerful.

But One Battle’s Teyana Taylor, the Golden Globe winner, and Sinners’s Wunmi Mosaku, the BAFTA recipient, are still in the race. The general consensus seems to be that Sentimental Value’s Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas will split the vote in this category, though there’s even a scenario where the latter could spoil, winning over the Academy’s international voters much like Moura might. It’s truly all to play for.

All of which is to say: this set of SAG Award winners has given the Oscar race a whole new lease on life. Yes, Paul Thomas Anderson will almost certainly win Best Director and Jessie Buckley from Hamnet Best Actress, but in recent years it has felt like most categories were locked down before the ceremony. Last year, the only surprise among the acting prizes was Mikey Madison’s Best Actress win for Anora over Demi Moore in The Substance. The year before, Oppenheimer swept the board, turning what should have been a nail-biter into a predictable snooze. Frankly, that’s no fun—but this time, I absolutely can’t wait to see what happens.

Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Is This Years Oscar Race the Most Unpredictable in Recent Memory

Q1 What does it mean for an Oscar race to be unpredictable
A It means theres no clear frontrunner Multiple films and performances have won major precursor awards making it very hard to guess who will win on Oscar night

Q2 Why is this year considered so unpredictable after the SAG Awards
A The SAG Awards are a strong predictor for the Oscars especially for acting This year SAG winners like Lily Gladstone and Cillian Murphy are in tight races and the surprise Best Ensemble win for Oppenheimer over Barbie solidified that no single film is sweeping every category

Q3 Which major categories are the most up in the air
A The biggest question marks are Best Actress Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay Even Best Picture while Oppenheimer is favored isnt considered a 100 lock like some past years

Q4 Hasnt there always been some uncertainty What makes this year special
A Yes but recent years often had a dominant film This year the major awards have been split among several films creating a rare wideopen competition across the board

Q5 What is a precursor award and why do they matter
A Precursor awards are ceremonies held before the Oscars They reveal how industry peers are leaning and can create momentum or shift predictions

Q6 Could there be a major surprise on Oscar night because of this