Fashion operates on the assumption that cotton will keep growing, ports will keep running, workers will keep showing up, and shoppers will keep buying. But climate tipping points threaten many of these things.
Tipping points are thresholds where natural systems start shifting from one state to another, often in ways that reinforce themselves and become hard—or even impossible—to reverse, like knocking over a glass of water. Scientists are increasingly warning that these are real risks, and some tipping points are already happening, with serious consequences for fashion.
If ice sheets collapse, sea levels could rise over the long term, disrupting coastal economies. If the Amazon rainforest degrades, it could become drier and less rich in life, affecting biodiversity, local communities, and the moisture that supports farming regions producing global commodities like cotton. If the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation—which carries warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic—weakens or collapses, it could disrupt the system that keeps the UK and Europe relatively mild. Winters would get much colder, and summers would become hotter and drier, making it much harder to grow crops.
A farmer operates a cotton stripper during a cotton harvest on a farm in Oklahoma.
Photo: Getty Images
Even though scientists are growing more concerned, companies across industries aren’t including the combined risks of climate tipping points in their planning. After surveying global banks, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) concluded last year that none had fully integrated tipping points into their physical risk assessments, and only 5% were partially accounting for them.
“Tipping points haven’t really come up,” says Francois Souchet, founder of climate data consultancy Swanstant. “I don’t know if people haven’t realized it, or if they’re still hoping for the best, because the questions tipping points raise are much harder.”
Pressure may be building for that to change. Earlier this month, JP Morgan released a report highlighting the need for businesses and investors to start factoring climate tipping points into their decisions. According to the report, tipping points have been hard to measure because the science is still developing, the timing and scale of impacts are uncertain, and the financial effects may be indirect, non-linear, and outside normal pricing horizons.
Unlike the gradual warming and incremental damage assumed in many climate-risk models, tipping points raise the possibility of sudden, cascading disruptions. The consequences may not be obvious right away, and by the time they are, the threshold may have already been crossed. Standard valuation and underwriting tools are often based on short-term forecasts and historical patterns, so they don’t capture risks that emerge abruptly.
But given the huge consequences, it’s essential to face tipping points. “Just because an event is improbable does not mean it is impossible,” Sarah Kapnick, JP Morgan’s global head of climate advisory, wrote in the report.
For fashion, says Mike Barrett, chief scientific advisor for WWF UK, the question isn’t just how the industry is exposed to these risks, but how it contributes to them—and what role it could play in reducing them.
Grappling with tipping points
The fashion industry has focused on climate goals like increasing recycled content, reducing water use, and cutting greenhouse gas emissions. But researchers at Cornell University’s Global Labor Institute say that chasing rapid production growth contradicts the industry’s stated goal of a smaller carbon footprint. The industry also often overlooks adaptation—the need to protect factories, workers, and sourcing regions from the physical impacts of climate change.
If the industry doesn’t adapt to extreme heat and humidity, the Cornell researchers say, business could take a serious hit.A serious blow. Without adapting, they estimate that losses could reach 4.9% of GDP in Bangladesh, 6.5% in Cambodia, and 5.1% in Pakistan—all key clothing production centers. Jason Judd, executive director of the Global Labor Institute, says adaptation could be as simple as providing cool water or adding insulation to a roof. But if temperatures spike suddenly, manufacturers who want to keep producing will need to cut working hours and increase rest time.
Lewis Perkins, president and CEO of the Apparel Impact Institute (Aii), says the organization hasn’t specifically modeled climate tipping points, but sees them as highlighting the need to invest in climate action and resilience. In a February report, Aii predicted that climate risks could cut fashion companies’ profits by up to 67% by 2040. “The cost of doing nothing isn’t steady—it speeds up as physical climate risks, policy changes, and market shifts start to pile up,” says Perkins. “Tipping points are when those pressures go from manageable to system-wide.”
H&M also doesn’t separately track risks from climate tipping points, but says they’re included in its overall climate risk analysis. The Swedish retailer lists its top physical climate risk as higher cotton prices from droughts and floods, along with disruptions to ports from cyclones, storms, and heavy rain, as well as water shortages. It has said that multiple climate impacts happening at once could lead to social disruption.
Souchet, who previously led the Ellen MacArthur Foundation’s Circular Fashion Initiative, says one way to start dealing with the possible effects of tipping points is to model for several years of disruption in a row. “Instead of asking what the climate looks like on average, you ask: what if we have three extreme El Niño years back-to-back, and what does that do to cotton production in India, which we know depends on monsoons?”
But Souchet says many of the measures companies take to protect against physical risks probably won’t be enough in a scenario of sudden, cascading change. Regenerative agriculture, for example, can improve soil moisture and help store carbon, but it can’t fully protect crops during a long, severe drought or major heat spikes. “It helps a little, but it doesn’t change the game from a tipping point perspective,” he says. “It’s a bit like using tape to stop a leak.”
Although some investors are starting to act on tipping point risks, these are still not well modeled. JP Morgan says regulation could force the issue by requiring such risks to be measured, leading markets to reprice exposed assets sooner. For long-term investors who want to start including tipping points in their financial models, JP Morgan suggests mapping exposure, running scenarios that include sudden changes, and updating risk assessments as science advances.
For fashion, this could mean asking not just whether a supplier can handle one bad flood or heatwave, but what happens if cotton yields, ports, worker productivity, and consumer demand all take a hit at the same time. Barrett points to concerns about food security and essential goods after the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, adding that climate tipping points could cause much bigger disruptions.
“For all sectors that rely on natural resources—whether it’s water or materials—it becomes very clear that if tipping points play out, there’s no economic future where these sectors can thrive,” says Barrett. “The same goes for fashion.”
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about fashions role in climate tipping points written in a natural conversational tone
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What is a climate tipping point
A tipping point is like a point of no return Imagine pushing a heavy rock up a hillonce it rolls over the top it crashes down on its own For the climate its when a small change triggers a huge unstoppable disaster
2 Why should I care about fashion and tipping points
Fashion is a massive polluter The industry creates about 10 of global carbon emissionsmore than all international flights and shipping combined If we dont slow down production and waste we help push the planet closer to those dangerous tipping points
3 How does my tshirt actually hurt the climate
Making a cotton tshirt uses a lot of water fertilizer and energy But the biggest problem is that most clothes are made from synthetic fibers like polyester When you wash them they release microplastics into the ocean Plus making and shipping them burns fossil fuels adding CO2 to the atmosphere
4 Whats a fast fashion piece and is it really that bad
Fast fashion is cheap trendy clothing that falls apart quickly Its bad because it encourages you to buy more wear it a few times and throw it away That throwaway cycle creates mountains of textile waste and demands constant production which speeds up climate change
5 Can buying sustainable clothes really help
Yes but its not a magic fix Buying highquality durable clothes and wearing them for years is the single best thing you can do It reduces demand for new production which lowers emissions and waste
AdvancedLevel Questions
6 Which specific tipping points is the fashion industry most likely to trigger
Three major ones
Amazon Rainforest Dieback Fashion uses a lot of woodbased fibers Unsustainable logging for these fibers destroys the rainforest risking it turning into a desert